December 22nd, 2006

Obama Effect Reaches Iowa; A Vermont Alliance Both Clandestine and Creamy; And VDB’s Cheapskate Holiday Wishes to You

by Philip Baruth

Interesting movement in the polling out of Iowa. Obama now runs neck and neck with Edwards, with Hillary an increasingly distant fourth place behind the incorrigible Tom Vilsack.

obama, pensiveResearch 2000 Group
December 18-20, MoE +/- 4.0%*

* John Edwards: 22%
* Barack Obama: 22%
* Tom Vilsack: 12%
* Hillary Clinton: 10%

Only weeks ago, Edwards topped the field (36%), with Clinton a strong second-place finisher (16%).

What does this trend mean? Well, almost jack. Almost being the operative word here.

Because even with all the normal caveats in place — early shifting dynamics, inconsistent methodologies, dark sides of the moon — the polling does suggest some general possibilities, if not probabilities.

Hillary Clinton may well fade dramatically as the reality of her candidacy comes into focus, which would be in keeping with VDB’s long-term forecast.

Edwards’ early lead seems tied directly to the fact that he never stopped campaigning post-2004; as other candidates take the field, he may well drop back to the strong labor base.

But one thing is certain: the Obama Effect has reached the Heartland. [Photos: Don Shall]

And that effect will only grow stronger into the coming year. Obama, BenExpect Obama to eventually top out polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

And expect Obama’s recent covert, clandestine meeting with behind-the-scenes political kingmaker Ben Cohen to bear delicious fruit.

That’s right, baby, the ultimate in buzz: Ben & Jerry’s secretly stages a boffo roll-out of an all-new flavor in the last weeks leading up to the Iowa Caucuses.

Cookie Dough-Bama.

And the slogan: More dough. Less vanilla. Oh Bama!

Late Update, 1:34 pm:

VDB-stalwart Don (not to be confused, of course, with emerging photojournalist and VDB-wingman Don Shall) writes in to up the ante a bit:

Dear VDB,

The attached Christmas card might give some idea of
the size of the dogs I’m runnin’ with these days.

— Don

an obama christmas

Which pretty much closes out our week here at VDB.

If there’s not something inherently immoral or criminal or downright cheap about repurposing someone else’s Christmas card, please accept the Obama family’s greetings as VDB’s own, to you and yours.

Happy holidays, friends.